Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 70410.967177 74470.525017 78535.755020 82909.066491 87477.711442 92106.502420 97147.680892
2025-03-09 63745.172099 69950.186557 76345.528762 83419.983148 91016.674355 98919.362815 107752.128913
2025-03-16 58414.614708 66011.776405 74022.824535 83080.136779 93015.565718 103562.312899 115584.083160
2025-03-23 55350.604314 64088.332469 73476.902561 84282.310035 96341.201521 109351.065236 124413.570711
2025-03-30 52621.534040 62248.915033 72765.560151 85058.485944 98983.242858 114216.388354 132089.054819
2025-04-06 49911.380930 60215.285038 71641.901795 85187.720214 100738.860834 117964.173652 138414.748871
2025-04-13 47439.306285 58288.514789 70488.995450 85140.643782 102168.898072 121244.898931 144136.340341
2025-04-20 45991.883367 57448.576391 70494.762185 86344.169134 104966.167102 126037.038761 151561.342590
2025-04-27 44679.251680 56681.461606 70510.683544 87493.704386 107650.541103 130669.775552 158796.821834
2025-05-04 43179.788525 55609.412786 70095.017611 88069.760111 109611.276755 134429.366059 165004.771612
2025-05-11 41514.650355 54258.636603 69276.602585 88100.936720 110873.007462 137332.285943 170187.818717
2025-05-18 40060.252627 53101.326531 68633.251558 88289.283033 112279.059027 140376.716180 175525.927778
2025-05-25 38595.425898 51892.330818 67898.749042 88350.504786 113532.799402 143261.932676 180725.400861
2025-06-01 37780.881572 51465.822168 68101.266939 89543.731834 116158.708330 147805.679991 187950.490475
2025-06-08 36340.929707 50189.904168 67198.360214 89323.089587 117015.211149 150189.000177 192559.048567
2025-06-15 35706.192531 49918.078821 67531.251951 90627.836897 119748.840437 154862.014341 199976.748153
2025-06-22 34896.388649 49385.262182 67505.161375 91457.421765 121877.405227 158793.449203 206503.621129
2025-06-29 33826.489451 48472.555050 66959.114412 91595.845118 123116.001729 161616.144092 211668.160376
2025-07-06 32733.663306 47491.667338 66290.821995 91546.208071 124092.224546 164098.931897 216410.385546
2025-07-13 32261.326471 47320.861538 66659.226573 92822.577637 126752.195896 168691.260404 223804.847275
2025-07-20 31790.948149 47133.358960 66990.793593 94041.460501 129337.691759 173200.755582 231122.678779
2025-07-27 31098.023363 46618.498430 66869.917564 94652.197487 131131.190173 176712.856392 237201.611637
2025-08-03 30208.902112 45805.759276 66327.622711 94685.250271 132159.647586 179247.499872 242049.531908